A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
